The Tory quitters walked away and made a no-deal Brexit that little bit more likely

Who would have guessed that Heidi Allen, Anna Soubry and Dr Sarah Wollaston would quit the Tory party? They have sounded off, voted against the government and openly criticised virtually everything the party has done for ages.


After 7 Labour MPs launched the oxymoronic concept of an independent group by quitting the party on Monday, a couple of Tory MPs resigning was always going to look like a naf side show. A chaotic start to settle the photographers and a microphone that didn’t extend to the journalists posing questions, created an amateur appearance that was most fitting to what was taking place.
Well, dear reader, I could offer you several highlights. Heidi Allen’s best line: “But watching the news night after night it was as if Lord Kitchener was pointing his finger out of the screen at me: Your Country Needs You!”
Except that the most common response I get from anyone who isn’t a political junky like me when your name is mentioned is: “Heidi who?” Because Heidi Allen, I don’t think, has ever supported her party with anything. In fact, she actively and emotively undermined it.

As for Anna Soubry, it was predictable that her speech lasted 5 times longer than anyone else’s, as she bemoaned the marginalisation of the One Nation Tories and seemed utterly convinced that those who hadn’t walked out the party with her, must secretly want to. At one point, she attacked Theresa May’s attempts to achieve Brexit consensus on the spurious basis that whilst she had met members of the European Research Group of so-called hard brexiteers, she hasn’t met Justine Greening. To imply that this demonstrates Mrs May’s failure to reach out to remainers is to ignore the parliamentary arithmetic to such an extent that it would make Diane Abbott proud. Whilst the ERG contains a spectrum of opinion about leaving the EU without a deal and is numerous enough to tilt the balance in favour or against Mrs May, Greening is a single MP who has aligned herself to those advocating a second referendum. These arguments have been put to Mrs May in meetings with both Scottish and Welsh nationalists, and the Liberal Democrats. Why doesn’t Anna Soubry stop bringing other people’s names in to it?

And then there is Sarah Wollaston. Her speech, mercifully short, focussed on the claims of the brexiteers and her unhappiness with them. Given that she endorsed the Brexit campaign, then with a couple of weeks to go before the vote changed her mind on the biggest issue we’ve faced in peace time because of a poster, it’s a pretty hard pill to swallow from the good doctor.

But forget the speeches. The real folly in what these egos have done is this: they have actually made the very Brexit outcome they least desire, more likely. Mrs May’s hopeless Brexit paralysis might be the product of one of the most delusional minds in Christendom. However, I think it’s far more likely that her indecisiveness and control freakery meant that there was only ever one game in town: to keep a foot in both Tory camps for as long as possible. That’s why she’s stuck with red lines she can’t give up to keep her remainers happy, but also can’t pledge to keep leaving the EU without a deal on the table with any convincing sincerity for her brexiteers.

But time is running out. The moment will soon come when she cannot ask for more time or beg further favours from an EU that’s sticking by the Irish and has already been misled once about her chances of getting a deal through the UK parliament. This fragile and desperate situation is on a knife edge. With weeks to go, we’re still in the dark about which side the PM will ultimately decide her bread is buttered. I think that, in the end, she will cave to remainers, seek an extension to article 50 and negotiate a softer Brexit. She will probably face a sizeable revolt if her apparent willingness to allow a no-deal by accident isn’t a bluff. And yet, whilst they won’t change the outcome if my scenario proves correct, the 3 quitters will have made the prospect of her deciding to back her brexiteers more likely. It is now beyond doubt: they are out of reach, off limits and not remotely open to discussion or negotiation. Given that remainers can, at best, hope for a compromise that keeps us aligned in some areas to the EU and retains free trade, taking an uncompromising stance is about as foolish a thing as it’s possible for a remainer to do. A second referendum isn’t going to happen. The Tory quitters walked away and made a no-deal Brexit that little bit more likely.