There could yet be a Lazarus moment for a second referendum

A few short weeks ago, it looked like the prospect of a second referendum was well and truly dead in the water.
For one thing, it was likely that Parliament would reject it (they did, in a subsequent vote). Theresa May would bring her deal back for a second time, with signs that brexiteers might be warming to supporting it, given that, like it or not, it does provide a means of facilitating our departure from the EU. Jeremy Corbyn was offering only tentative nods in the right direction, but never really getting behind the idea of another vote.

But a few weeks is a long time in the mayhem of Brexit Britain. There could yet be a Lazarus moment for that second referendum.

Having seized control of the process from the government (extraordinary in itself), Parliament tomorrow will undertake indicative votes. Theresa May has poured scorn on the process, making it clear that she is sceptical of its success and in any case unwilling to even promise her commitment to respect anything that does conclusively emerge. This stance is treating parliamentarians like fools. MPs understand Mrs May’s argument that their preferred option might not be one that can be negotiated with the EU, but the PM could signal her clear commitment to taking the result as the basis of a new negotiating mandate with the EU. Or in plain English, she could at least try! But threats and hectoring to those on both sides of the argument have become the life support keeping this strategically inept prime minister’s premiership alive.

Perhaps a clear proposal could emerge, and be snubbed by Mrs May, triggering an even deeper crisis. Alternatively, no clear proposal emerges, and the deadlock continues. Either way, Theresa May has to then seek more time for the UK to find a way through. The EU could blow this apart by declining the extension, but it would then stand accused of ultimately triggering a no-deal UK departure. Mrs May could refuse to seek an extension, but the overwhelming crisis that could cause within the Conservative party makes that an option in theory only.
Backed in to a corner, Parliament will be faced with a situation where a no-deal scenario is the only one left standing – the scenario it so plainly doesn’t want. What then?
Perhaps the second referendum idea will come back and be supported. Parliament may finally give its backing to the Prime Minister’s deal, on condition that it is put to a public vote that also includes the option to remain. If May’s deal has finally kicked the bucket, the decision could be to put the only remaining options of remaining or leaving without a deal to a public vote.
Alternatively, the crisis will lead to a general election. Corbyn’s top team will be pressured in to campaigning for a second referendum. Not only do many in Labour ranks want it, but it would play well to a broader narrative of Conservative failure to protect workers’ rights, as well as the usual anti-austerity garbage. The party that enjoyed some success in 2017 by not talking about Brexit and steering their Tory rivals away from the subject, will make it the central plank of its campaign, promising a referendum and blasting the abject failure of Mrs May’s government over Brexit. It proves a successful formula, they win and the referendum duly happens.

Few want a second referendum. Confidence in politicians is already so low and if the wishes of the 2016 referendum are in no way reflected in the end result, that situation could only get worse. Both sides of the referendum campaign in 2016 engaged in underhand tactics, centring their arguments on claims that either promised fantasy opportunities or vastly exaggerated warnings of Armageddon. Clearly a further extension sufficient to enable another public vote would also mean the UK contesting European parliamentary elections, in what will surely be a bitter and toxic campaign as a gentle warm-up to the main event!
But despite all this, it’s becoming more and more clear that it’s a second vote, or a government and Parliament-led, no-deal exit. If neither Parliament or the government can quite stomach that, no other choice remains. This hideous Brexit was started by direct democracy; there’s a good chance it will be ended by it.